Everbright commented on March PMI: infrastructure underpins PPI rebound and economy enters weak growth
1. The factors of the Spring Festival cannot be ignored.
March PMI jumped by 1 from the previous month.
3 perfect to 50.
5%, below the critical point for three consecutive months before the end.
The production index and the new order index contributed to Dublin.
As the Lantern Festival this year fell to mid-February, and the return to work was basically completed in March, the new production and new 杭州桑拿 orders index of the factory increased significantly from last month, which led to the rebound of the PMI index in March.
2. The underpinning effect of infrastructure construction is gradually emerging.
In March, the construction business activity index rose by 2 from the previous month.
5 perfect to 61.
7%, while the construction industry’s new orders index was 57.
9%, up 5 from last month.
9 digits, the highest in 15 months.
In addition, from the perspective of the supply-side pressure index, the March index also expanded to 5.
3%, the highest since 2018, which indicates that the pressure on the supply of upstream raw materials has increased, and the underpinning effect of infrastructure has begun to manifest, which is conducive to supporting the profitability of upstream enterprises.
PPI quarterly we forecast a slight rebound to 0 in March.
3%, but the rebound is relatively slow.
3. Under the background of weak global manufacturing, China’s economy has entered a weak growth mode.
The global PMI is still resonating with downward pressure. The March, PMI of the United States, Japan, and Germany still has no rebound value.
The new export order index and import index for March were 47.
1% and 48.
7%, still below the threshold, shows that the foreign trade environment is still to be restored.
In February, the industrial profits of Chinese enterprises above designated size increased at a maximum annual rate of -14%, the lowest value since 2009.
In the context of “three-phase overlap”, the economy is growing weakly, and macroeconomic policies need to remain accommodative at this time.