Follett (601865): The expansion of photovoltaic glass faucet is the right time

Follett (601865): The expansion of photovoltaic glass faucet is the right time
One of the leaders in the photovoltaic glass industry, covering the first time with an “overweight” rating. Follett is the first photovoltaic glass manufacturer in China and the second largest photovoltaic glass company in the world. It was listed in H shares and A shares in 2015 and this year.With the opening of financing channels and the speed of capacity expansion, the 1000t / d photovoltaic glass kiln in the third phase of Fengyang Base has been put into operation in recent two years, and the capacity has expanded rapidly. We believe that there is a supply gap in photovoltaic glass in 19 years, and the industry’s prosperity is expected to improve. In the cumulative expansion cycle, Follett is expected to enjoy a pattern of rising volume and price; in the medium and long term, the industry’s ecology will improve, the industry scale is expected to be more stable, and market shareIt will further concentrate on leading enterprises such as Follett.The company’s EPS for 19-21 is expected to be zero.39/0.57/0.72 yuan, the first coverage given an overweight rating. There may be gaps in photovoltaic glass, driving the industry ‘s prosperity. The demand for photovoltaic glass is affected by the penetration of double glass components, which can directly benefit from the increase in installed photovoltaic capacity. According to our latest sensitivity analysis, 19 years of global photovoltaic glassExpected to achieve 13.7% -25.1% growth; while the production of photovoltaic glass is at a relatively low level, taking into account the resumption of cold repair capacity, new production capacity and other factors, we expect more global growth in photovoltaic glass.22%, the supply pressure is relatively limited.Under the scenario of a global installation of 120GW of new photovoltaic installations in 19 years and a 20% reduction in double-glass module penetration, the photovoltaic glass supply gap is 222. At 74 million square meters, the tight supply of photovoltaic glass will drive the price of photovoltaic glass to remain strong, and the profitability of the photovoltaic glass industry 天津夜网 is expected to continue to rise. The company actively expands its production capacity, continuously improves its leading edge, and further improves the company’s leading photovoltaic glass manufacturing company. Through independent research and development, it is the first to break the monopoly of overseas companies, leading the manufacturing technology industry, and participating in the formulation of industry standards. It has cultivated the photovoltaic glass industry for many years.Advantages and brand advantages; After the company landed in H shares in 2015, the company resolved the issue of capacity expansion funding and accelerated the pace of capacity expansion. Anhui Fengyang production base’s third phase of a total of 3000t / d photovoltaic glass production capacity has been put into production, and two bases in 杭州夜网论坛 VietnamThe production line is also expected to be put into production in the second half of this year and next year, and the company’s production and sales are expected to maintain rapid growth. As the new production line transports 1000t / d perforating kiln each year, the process is more advanced, and the unit output and yield rate meet the expected competition.The increase in margin will drive the company’s production costs down, and the company’s leading advantages are expected to further increase. The industry leader’s expansion is justified, and the company with an “overweight” rating is the leader in the photovoltaic glass industry, with rapid capacity expansion.We estimate the company’s sales volume of photovoltaic glass in 19-21.51/2.07/2.5.1 billion square meters; At the same time, the company leads the technology industry and actively promotes technological innovations such as ultra-thin photovoltaic glass and double-glass modules. The advantages of the newly built kiln are more obvious in this respect, which can avoid the production cost and consolidate the company’s profit moat.We expect the company’s net profit to be 7 in FY19-21.70/11.07/14.09 million yuan, corresponding to 0 EPS.39/0.57/0.72 yuan, with reference to the 19-year industry average PE estimated level (28.26x), considering the company’s rapid growth rate, given a certain evaluation premium, we believe that the company’s 19-year PE is reasonably estimated to be 29-30x, corresponding to the target price of 11.31-11.70 yuan, the first coverage, given an “overweight” rating. Risk warning: The photovoltaic industry subsidy policy is less than expected; overseas market demand is less than expected.