Panzhihua Vanadium Titanium (000629): Vertical vanadium price conversion due to supply and demand deterioration of rebar

Panzhihua Vanadium Titanium (000629): Vertical vanadium price conversion due to supply and demand deterioration of rebar

The company achieved a profit of 30 in 2018.

9 trillion, in line with previous expectations March 25, 2019, the company released the 2018 annual report: the company achieved revenue of 151.

61 trillion, a 60-year growth rate of 60.

68%, net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company30.

90 trillion, a growth rate of 257 in ten years.

96%, basic profit returns 0.

36 yuan, an annual increase of 0.

26 yuan, performance in line with our previous expectations.

The price of vanadium products has fallen after November 2018, and the performance is lower than our expectations. The main reason is that steel mills use silicon-manganese and improve the process to replace vanadium products. In the future, demand for vanadium products still needs to focus on real estate and infrastructure investment.

The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.

39, 0.

4
0, 0.

40 yuan, corresponding to PE is 9.

6,9.

5, 9.

5; the previous forecast of EPS in 2019 and 2020 is 0.

42, 0.

38 yuan; with reference to comparable company estimates, maintain the company’s “overweight” rating.

The sales volume of vanadium products increased by more than 20%, and the gross profit margin increased by 14 to replace the average price of vanadium pentoxide (98% 苏州夜网论坛 tablets, Sichuan) in 2018 reaching 26.

690,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 131% over 2017.

Benefiting from the increase in demand for vanadium products, the company’s vanadium products (calculated as V2O5) sales in 20182.

32 per year, up 20 per year.

24%; gross profit margin of vanadium products 37.

21%, up 14 a year.

44 points.

According to the company’s related transaction information, the purchase price of vanadium crude slag in 2018 was 2,709 yuan / ton, an increase of 500 yuan / ton from 2017.

For the Yanjia Titanium Project, the impairment of assets was accrued in 20182.

180,000 yuan in 2018, the company’s asset impairment loss 2.
.

1.8 billion, including impairment losses on construction in progress2.

10,000 yuan, mainly due to the Yanjia Titanium industry under construction project-environmental protection relocation construction of chlorinated titanium dioxide (Phase I) project accrued impairment.

10,000 yuan.

According to the company’s announcement, the provision for impairment of the project was mainly due to the impairment of the land used for construction of the project in the Land Reserve Center of Changshou District, Chongqing, and the book value of the project2.

650,000 yuan, the estimated recoverable amount is 0.

6.5 billion.

The demand for vanadium products is still increasing in 2019. Pay attention to the new construction and growth of real estate. The new steel bar standard will be implemented in 2018. The implementation time of 2019 will be February and December respectively.Look at the remaining increase in demand for vanadium products before the year.

In the first two months of 2019, the floor space of newly started housing exceeded the growth rate of 6%, an increase of 3 over the same period last year.

1pct, but lower than the area of newly started area in 2018 of 17.

With a growth rate of 2%, we believe that the rebar demand will be under pressure in the later period. At the same time, the environmental protection production will be relaxed in 2019, and the rebar supply will increase. We believe that the average price of rebar will fall, and the ability to replace vanadium products will be reduced.
In summary, we believe that the average price of vanadium products in 2019 will fall slightly.

Xichang Steel Vanadium is expected to be injected into the company in the future, maintaining the company’s “overweight” rating. The company’s current controlled vanadium product capacity is about 4 tons (including Xichang Steel Vanadium hosting).

8 emissions), the industry leader level has not changed; Xichang Steel Vanadium is expected to be injected into the company in 2020, but the injection time has not yet been determined, so the profit forecast is not considered for the time being.

The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.

39, 0.

40, 0.

40 yuan, corresponding to PE is 9.

6,9.

5, 9.

5.

Currently the company PE (ttm) is 14.

45. According to the forecasted gross profit share in 2019, we will take into account multiple operating discounts and give the company October 2019.

46-11.

36 times PE estimate, 2019 forecast EPS is 0.

39 yuan, corresponding to the target price of 4.

12?
4
47 yuan to maintain the “overweight” level.

Risk Warning: New construction of real estate starts, construction growth rate is lower than expected; macro economy is lower than expected.